Will the proportion of "Important" vs "Critical" classifications in Microsoft Patch Tuesday releases swing over 10 percentage points toward "Critical" in 2026 vs 2025?
Probability
connecting…Yes50%
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About
Resolves YES if the share of "Critical" advisories (out of Critical + Important) across all 12 Patch Tuesdays in 2026 exceeds the same share for 2025 by more than 10 percentage points.
Resolution criteria
Compute share over MSRC update guide entries by Release Date. Threshold: 2026 share minus 2025 share > 0.10.
- Source
- MSRC Update Guide CSV exports for 2025 and 2026.
- Ambiguity
- AMBIGUOUS if Microsoft restructures its severity taxonomy.
microsoftseveritystatistics
Discussion
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