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Will a crypto exchange lose more than $100M to hackers in 2026?

Open·Closes 8mo·Vol 0 credits

Probability

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Yes50%
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About

Crypto-exchange hacks for nine-figure sums happen every year. Will at least one publicly-traded or top-20 crypto exchange disclose a single hack of more than $100M USD in 2026?

Resolution criteria

YES if any top-20 crypto exchange (by 24h volume on CoinGecko at the time of the incident) reports a single security incident with losses over $100M USD in 2026.

Source
CoinGecko, CoinDesk, Chainalysis, exchange statements.
Ambiguity
AMBIGUOUS if losses span multiple incidents none of which individually exceeds $100M.
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Discussion

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