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All
106
Vulnerabilities
26
Breaches
26
Ransomware
15
Regulatory
9
Infrastructure
13
Nation-state
6
AI security
11
All markets
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Most active
Regulatory
CISA issues a binding operational directive or emergency directive in next 7 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2d
Nation-state
A government issues sanctions citing cyber activity in next 7 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2d
AI security
A frontier AI lab announces a new safety / red-team finding in next 7 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2d
Breaches
Stolen-data marketplace lists a US-headquartered firm with 1M+ records in next 6 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 1d
Vulnerabilities
A vendor releases an out-of-band security patch in next 6 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 1d
Infrastructure
Microsoft 365 status reports an incident in next 5 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 4h
Regulatory
SEC files a cybersecurity enforcement action in next 5 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 4h
Ransomware
A US local government reports ransomware in next 5 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 4h
Breaches
Will Verizon publish the 2026 Data Breach Investigations Report by June 30?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 56d
Breaches
Will a crypto project lose over $10M to a hack or rug pull in May 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
AI security
Will OpenAI post any "major outage" on its status page in May 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 27d
Ransomware
Will a major US company be hit by ransomware over Memorial Day weekend 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Nation-state
Will the 2026 G7 summit communiqué include a dedicated cyber section?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 50d
Infrastructure
Will Microsoft 365 (Outlook/Teams) have a 4+ hour outage in May 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 27d
Vulnerabilities
Will more than 7,000 CVEs be published in Q2 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2mo
Infrastructure
Will any of AWS / Azure / GCP have a global service degradation in May 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 27d
Vulnerabilities
Will CISA add 15+ vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 27d
Vulnerabilities
Will DEF CON 2026 Voting Village publish a US voting-machine hack?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 4mo
Vulnerabilities
Will Microsoft's May 2026 Patch Tuesday include a zero-day under active exploitation?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9d
AI security
Which AI lab will have the most-shared jailbreak posted in 2026 — Other
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Which AI lab will have the most-shared jailbreak posted in 2026 — xAI
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Which AI lab will have the most-shared jailbreak posted in 2026 — Meta
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Which AI lab will have the most-shared jailbreak posted in 2026 — Google DeepMind
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Which AI lab will have the most-shared jailbreak posted in 2026 — Anthropic
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Which AI lab will have the most-shared jailbreak posted in 2026 — OpenAI
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Infrastructure
Which AWS region will be the next to suffer a multi-hour outage — A different region
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Infrastructure
Which AWS region will be the next to suffer a multi-hour outage — ap-northeast-1 (Tokyo)
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Infrastructure
Which AWS region will be the next to suffer a multi-hour outage — eu-west-1 (Ireland)
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Infrastructure
Which AWS region will be the next to suffer a multi-hour outage — us-west-2 (Oregon)
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Infrastructure
Which AWS region will be the next to suffer a multi-hour outage — us-east-1 (N. Virginia)
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Which vendor will trigger the next CISA Emergency Directive in 2026 — Other vendor
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Which vendor will trigger the next CISA Emergency Directive in 2026 — Fortinet
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Which vendor will trigger the next CISA Emergency Directive in 2026 — VMware/Broadcom
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Which vendor will trigger the next CISA Emergency Directive in 2026 — Ivanti
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Which vendor will trigger the next CISA Emergency Directive in 2026 — Cisco
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Which vendor will trigger the next CISA Emergency Directive in 2026 — Microsoft
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Ransomware
Which ransomware group will claim the most victims in Q2 2026 — A new group not on this list
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2mo
Ransomware
Which ransomware group will claim the most victims in Q2 2026 — RansomHub
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2mo
Ransomware
Which ransomware group will claim the most victims in Q2 2026 — Akira
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2mo
Ransomware
Which ransomware group will claim the most victims in Q2 2026 — BlackBasta
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2mo
Ransomware
Which ransomware group will claim the most victims in Q2 2026 — Cl0p
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 2mo
Breaches
Which Big Tech company will headline the biggest breach in May 2026 — No big breach this month
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Breaches
Which Big Tech company will headline the biggest breach in May 2026 — Amazon
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Breaches
Which Big Tech company will headline the biggest breach in May 2026 — Meta
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Breaches
Which Big Tech company will headline the biggest breach in May 2026 — Apple
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Breaches
Which Big Tech company will headline the biggest breach in May 2026 — Google
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Breaches
Which Big Tech company will headline the biggest breach in May 2026 — Microsoft
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 30d
Breaches
Will "password" or "123456" still be in the top 10 most common passwords for 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Vulnerabilities
Will an iPhone get hacked at Pwn2Own in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Nation-state
Will the US declare a cyber-related national emergency in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will a popular free VPN be caught leaking user data in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Ransomware
Will law enforcement take down at least one major ransomware gang in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Nation-state
Will a US state confirm a cyber incident affecting the 2026 midterms?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Infrastructure
Will AWS have an entire region go offline for over 1 hour in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Will ChatGPT have a global outage of 4+ hours in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
AI security
Will a deepfake of a US politician get over 1M views in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will a crypto exchange lose more than $100M to hackers in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Regulatory
Will TikTok be effectively banned in the US in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will a celebrity with 10M+ followers get their X/Instagram account hacked in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will the FBI report more cybercrime complaints in 2026 than 2025?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 11mo
Regulatory
Will NIST update password guidance in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Ransomware
Will at least 30 US K-12 school districts get hit by ransomware in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Ransomware
Will a US hospital make national news for a ransomware attack in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will a major US airline have a cyber-related disruption in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will Google Chrome push at least one security update every month in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will Apple push an emergency iPhone update in 2026 to fix an active attack?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) admit to a data leak in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will the average dwell time (per Mandiant M-Trends) decrease year-over-year in the M-Trends 2027 report covering 2026 data?
Probability
82%
Yes
82%
No
18%
Vol 100 credits
Closes 14mo
Ransomware
Will the share of cyber insurance claims attributed to ransomware exceed 60% in any 2026 carrier report?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 11mo
Breaches
Will global cybercrime damages estimates exceed $12T USD for 2026 in any major industry report?
Probability
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
Vol 50 credits
Closes 14mo
Breaches
Will more than half of the global Fortune 500 disclose at least one cyber incident in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 10mo
Vulnerabilities
Will the cumulative number of CVEs published in 2026 exceed 35,000?
Probability
82%
Yes
82%
No
18%
Vol 100 credits
Closes 9mo
AI security
Will any AI-coding-assistant company publicly disclose a prompt-injection-driven supply-chain incident in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Regulatory
Will SBOM consumption be mandated by any new US federal procurement rule taking effect in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Infrastructure
Will any 2026 ICS-CERT advisory carry a CVSS v4 base score over 9.5?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Infrastructure
Will TLS 1.2 still account for over 5% of HTTPS handshakes observed by Cloudflare Radar on 1 Dec 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 7mo
Vulnerabilities
Will any new CVE in 2026 be assigned to the Signal Protocol or libsignal?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will the proportion of "Important" vs "Critical" classifications in Microsoft Patch Tuesday releases swing over 10 percentage points toward "Critical" in 2026 vs 2025?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Vulnerabilities
Will any CSAF v2.0 advisory issued by a Fortune 500 company appear publicly in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Regulatory
Will any 2026 SEC 8-K cybersecurity disclosure cite "material" impact within under 4 business days of the registrant's first awareness?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Regulatory
Will the median time-to-patch for KEV-listed 2026 CVEs in FCEB agencies (per CISA quarterly reports) exceed 21 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 11mo
Nation-state
Will the cybersecurity industry coin a new named threat-actor group with the prefix "TA-" or "APT-" in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Infrastructure
Will Cloudflare report mitigating a DDoS attack over 5 Tbps in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will any kernel CVE in the Linux mainline tree get assigned by the Linux CNA in 2026 with a CVSS over 9.0?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Regulatory
Will the 2026 NIST PQC migration deadline for federal CNSA 2.0 systems slip?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will more than 30% of 2026 CISA KEV entries name a Microsoft product?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Vulnerabilities
Will any 2026 CVE in OpenSSL receive a "Critical" severity rating from the OpenSSL project?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will any actively exploited CVE be published in 2026 with patch availability lagging public exploitation by over 30 days?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Regulatory
Will the EU's GDPR generate a single fine over EUR 1B in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Vulnerabilities
Will any new CVE in 2026 reach a CVSS base score of 10.0?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will Microsoft issue an out-of-band Windows security patch in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Nation-state
Will a major undersea cable cut in 2026 be officially attributed to state-linked sabotage?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Ransomware
Will worldwide ransomware payments in 2026 (per Chainalysis) exceed $1.5B USD?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 11mo
Infrastructure
Will a global cloud provider (AWS / Azure / GCP) suffer a multi-region outage over 4 hours in 2026 attributed to a security event?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Breaches
Will any single 2026 breach exceed 1 billion records exposed?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Breaches
Will the largest 2026 healthcare breach exceed 50 million records?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Ransomware
Will any single school district in the US report a successful ransomware attack in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Ransomware
Will any single Bitcoin wallet receive a ransom payment over $5M in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Breaches
Will any single small business (under 50 employees) appear in a US AG breach-notification list in 2026 with over 100,000 records exposed?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Breaches
Will the .gov domain of any US county with population under 50,000 be defaced in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Ransomware
Will the City of Oakland (CA) report a new ransomware incident in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Vulnerabilities
Will at least one CVE be published in 2026 with a CVSS v3.1 base score of exactly 4.20?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo
Breaches
Will the phrase "sophisticated nation-state actor" appear in 5 or more distinct breach disclosures in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Breaches
Will any Fortune 100 CEO be photographed wearing a hoodie in their official breach-statement video in 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 9mo
Vulnerabilities
Will a major cybersecurity vendor's marketing page contain the word "unhackable" on 1 Jul 2026?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 56d
Breaches
Will any organisation publish a post-mortem in 2026 that blames a single employee for a major breach?
Probability
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Vol 0 credits
Closes 8mo